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  #11  
Old November 5th, 2015, 03:01 PM
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for a 50/50 proposition 25 is too small a sample size to use.
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  #12  
Old November 5th, 2015, 03:17 PM
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Are these independent events? I have no idea what it is you are discussing here - nor do I want to have one, if it's about shoulder pad queen rugby - but the math for determining the probability of 25 independent 50/50 events to all come out one way is simply 0.5^25. Which is roughly 1.126E-10. Call it black swan territory.
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  #13  
Old November 5th, 2015, 03:31 PM
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Reminds me of a bar bet back in Feb. 1993, Dallas was going to its first Super Bowl in 14 years, and Buffalo was going into its third straight. This is Super Bowl 27.

This dude at the bar kept insisting the "odds are" that Buffalo would win, since it's their third SB visit in a row. Never mind they'd lost their first two, he was absolutely certain they would win based solely on some "odds" apparently in his own head only, that a third visit in a row means odds are you win. Like, social justice or something. I dunno. Like it wouldn't be "fair" or something, if they lost.

I tried to explain to him that for this particular incident, the past outcomes don't matter. I asked him, "If you had 20 coin tosses and lost 19 of them, what are the odds you win that 20th toss?" He was like, "probably very good!" And I was like, "No man, it's 50/50 every time, on a coin. Since there are only two possible outcomes - the prior outcomes don't enter into the equation."

He kept insisting Buffalo would win, still based only on this recurring odds crap, and challenged me to "put my money where my math is."

Didn't know this cluck, hadn't dealt with him before so I slipped a $100 bill to the tarbender, whom I did know well and said, "Well if you wanna bet, here's my hundred. Let's have Rita here hold the stakes - straight up, I say Dallas wins." He agreed to the bet and gave Rita his hundred, which she promptly sealed in a envelope with mine and taped to the mirror behind the bar. We had three days to wait.

I based my bet solely on performance tendencies - Buffalo's turnover habit vs. Dallas' highly aggressive, opportunistic, upfield pressure 4-3 defense that had terrorized the league all during the entire 1992 season leading up to this game. That and it's deadly efficient offense vs. Buffalo's spotty defense - they'd just got done giving up 41 points in a playoff game, in order to get to this game. We're gonna hang 30 on 'em at least, I figured, and maybe give up 20 if they luck out on some fluke play. I actually figured we would hold them to 13. (Ironically that was the exact score the following year, when the same two teams met for a rematch at SB 28. Dallas 30, Buffalo 13.)

Monday afternoon after the game I came in and collected my hundred. Dallas had converted a still NFL record NINE Buffalo turnovers into 32 points, and had scored 20 more on its own offensive possessions that weren't the result of a turnover.

52-17 Dallas. Ya dumbass. Buffalo's third straight SB loss of the four straight, they would suffer. Yes, exactly one year later the rematch I mentioned before came, SB 28 Dallas v. Buffalo, with the same predictable result. But, of course the dude was never seen in that bar or heard from, again. Would have loved to have taken another $100 from him and his dumbass fuzzy math.
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Old November 5th, 2015, 04:00 PM
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I forgot to mention in the story above, we'd had a little argument over it being a straight-up bet - this fucking cluck wanted me to give him POINTS, because Dallas was favored by the oddsmakers, by six! He wanted the bet to be for me, Dallas +3! Can you believe it?

Calmly, I was like "look dude, it doesn't matter that the betting line in Vegas is. This ain't Vegas. This is you saying Buffalo wins because it's like, their third in a row attempt or something. That's the bet or, no bet. I say Dallas wins. Straight up, no points."

The irony with this one was as strong as his ignorance.
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Old November 5th, 2015, 05:11 PM
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Originally Posted by Midnight Marauder View Post
I tried to explain to him that for this particular incident, the past outcomes don't matter. I asked him, "If you had 20 coin tosses and lost 19 of them, what are the odds you win that 20th toss?" He was like, "probably very good!" And I was like, "No man, it's 50/50 every time, on a coin. Since there are only two possible outcomes - the prior outcomes don't enter into the equation."
There's no end of people who don't understand the difference between probability and conditional probability. Always bet when you find them.
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Old November 5th, 2015, 06:35 PM
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Lmao. This is where people start to get silly with the Patriots. The legend of the Patriots is much greater than any of their actual accomplishments. During SpyGate they started out 12-0 in the playoffs and 3-0 in Super Bowls. Since then they are a couple of games over .500 in the playoffs and 1-2 in Super Bowls. They didn't win another ring until DeflateGate.

Peyton Manning, a QB who is derided for his lack of postseason success and often referred to as a "great regular season quarterback" actually loses to Brady at a clip of 3 to 1 in the regular season. In AFC Championship games, however, he is 2-1 against Tom Brady, and his only loss to him came during SpyGate. In fact, when playing straight up, Brady is 0-4 in Championship games against anyone with the last name Manning, and even factoring in years where they were caught and convicted of cheating he is 1-4.

Tom Brady is a very good Quarterback, and the Patriots have a very good team. When they are at least marginally following the rules (I doubt they ever do completely) they are a perennial playoff team but can't seal the deal with some hardware. When they figure out a scheme to give them that last ounce of competitive advantage, it puts them over the top and they win.

You want to tell me that they have somehow found a way to rig the coin toss? I highly doubt it. This seems too small and petty for even Shady and Belicheat. Then again, that is exactly what I said when the charge was levied that they were taking the air out of footballs. I guess I shouldn't put anything past them but I doubt this is anything other than luck of the draw... or the flip, so to speak.
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  #17  
Old November 5th, 2015, 08:22 PM
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Originally Posted by moomin View Post
There's no end of people who don't understand the difference between probability and conditional probability. Always bet when you find them.
Ha! And I was betting probability. Buffalo probably loses!
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